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  • texcan
    08-05 02:25 PM
    You can't generalize everything. Do you care to show how this is as bad as labor substitution ?
    How about comparing the actual job duties of all EB2s and EB3s ? Not just what their lawyer says.

    Rules are made with good intentions and it is people that misuse them. But for the desi sweat shops selling labors , even the labor substitution has some merits in some cases (Again Not all).

    Again , I don't really care what happens with this law suite (even if that happens). Just wanted to impress that there are very good number of legitimate cases where the PD porting makes sense and it is required.

    Friend,

    Your questions are valid and great arguments.
    Do i care to answer them all, no. But since we are talking and not fighting, yes i will take some time to provide my input.
    Thankyou for asking my input nicely, i like to belong to a group of educated and people who wear a head on their shoulders.

    Now a days its in fashion to go to school and call oneself educated, which to me this is as absurd as buying a piano and calling one self musician. This is my version of an old saying (trying a little bit).

    Again thanks for your politeness, and showing brotherhood.

    Here is my input.


    you asked - You can't generalize everything. Do you care to show how this is as bad as labor substitution ?


    My 2 cents:
    It was bad because many people were selling labor certificates. I know people who bought them for 10K, and got in green card line and well ahead in line than me and probably you ( we both are on the group today).

    you said: How about Comparing job duties of all EB2s and EB3s
    My 2 cents: why, what will this give you , other than some unrest and one more fight/arguments.

    you said: Rules are made with good intentions and it is people that misuse them. But for the desi sweat shops selling labors , even the labor substitution has some merits in some cases (Again Not all).

    My 2 cents: Yes i agree. This lawsuit idea is also to stop unjust practice, with good intentions and not all.

    you said: Again , I don't really care what happens with this law suite (even if that happens). Just wanted to impress that there are very good number of legitimate cases where the PD porting makes sense and it is required.
    My 2 cents:
    you are right there are cases where porting makes sense, but you cant claim the same on all cases. There are cases where this practice is unjust and breaking the line.
    Why do peole always port in favor of date/time to get faster green card. If porting is so justified ( job duties) how come no one ports to a category that is too late than one they are in.


    Most importantly, you cant push people around, just be nice to people. Please.

    I stand with you in this fight, but remember you stand with me too, and we stand together
    to make a point for all.





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  • dealsnet
    01-07 11:05 AM
    You want what??
    Bombay is attacked, our mother land is attacked. Our brothers and sisters are killed. They didn't done anything wrong. They are not maratis alone, from all over India. Children of Mother India. They are killed not during war, or during firing rockets, but were going for work, for feeding their family. Bombay is not a war Zone or disputed territory.
    You are furious, because your fellow muslim are the killers. You are loving the religion above the nation you live. Minority among the muslims live india, but support the pakistan or any terrorist only because of religion. Go to pakistan or saudi, if you don't like india. Love India or leave India. Same apply to USA.
    I have seen in bangalore muslims support Pakistan during cricket match between India and pakistan. I have heard they clapping evry time Indian wickets are fallen.

    After getting my GC, i visited this forum many times, helped a couple of forum members on how to contact congressman, sent them the draft letter etc on how to approach Ombudsman, congressman etc. I took help from this forum and i will try to return my favor to this forum.

    I highly regarded this forum, its core team and its members until "Mumbai attacked" thread was open. I knew that it will be a nasty thread and it will foment hatred towards one particular religion and its followers. And it did cause a lot of damage to members of one particular group including myself.

    Core team didn't stop this. They didn't even reminded the rules and regulations of this forum. That led to IV turning into HIV. This is not the right forum to discuss about politics especially war/terrorism etc. I don't know if IV will make it as a policy.

    I created this thread just to remind people that there are so many ruthless people/group/organization around the world that kill innocents mercilessly. I didn't create this thread to rally support for any particular group or speak against any particular faith or any particular country.

    I could have started this thread when the killing began two weeks back but i didn't. I started this when innocent school kids were massacred using missles and later it was justified. There are still so many heartless/mindless members sitting and supporting/justifying this brutal killing.

    Anyway, i'll sign off and i won't post any more message in this thread again.





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  • h1techSlave
    01-09 12:28 PM
    If a Muslim attacks you and if you cry, then YOU are a problem maker. You will be considered to be anti-muslim. This has been going on in many countries including India/pretty much all Western countries etc. Our admins are also following the same strategy. Buddy, please get used it.


    I did report to admin, they didn't take any action to the guy send the vulgar messages. Now warning the people copy pasted them.!!!!
    funny world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





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  • validIV
    06-05 05:24 PM
    My properties are in Woodside and Kew Gardens both in Queens, NYC. I have been fortunate as NYC is one of the best areas that kept its home value. I am certain this is not the case in 90% of the country but so far in NYC, the housing and renting market have only dropped slightly or remained stagnant in most areas here. In fact, some places are picking up again.

    I will admit that one unit (3 bedroom) that I was formerly renting out for 1900 had to be dropped to 1700 to compensate for the recession. But the house that the unit was located in (2 family house) appreciated in equity by 30,000 in 1.5 years (also in February 2009) amidst the economic downturn.

    As for generalizing, yes I understand that buying and owning is not for everyone, especially if your situation is temporary and you have no plans to stay in that area for long. But you are in America for God's sake. Take advantage of the system and don't be afraid of it. Why are you applying for your green card here if you dont plan to make it your home or long term? That just doesn't make sense to me. I know in the Philippines we cannot leverage as well as we can here with this system. I'm sure its the same in India? Correct me if I'm wrong.

    As for the housing bubble, it was bound to happen because banks were lending to people living beyond their means. That doesnt apply to us. Most immigrants are smart and don't buy a house unless they've done the math—even if the bank says we can afford it when we know we cannot.

    Renting, in my opinion, is a stepping stone. You rent only when you are saving to buy a home. You CANNOT rent your whole life, that is just a waste and like I said before, not smart. But smart people stop renting early and pay off their homes by their late 40s. At least that is what I am aiming for. Renting out my properties allow me to do that.

    With those rent/price ratio - it makes no sense indeed to rent.

    If I may ask you for a huge favor - could you please PM me more details about where specifically in Queens you have those kind of rent/price ratios?

    Since the market prices got so inflated - my experience is that the rent/price ratios are still wayy off historical trends. My impression (based on a few examples I have seen) is that in most of the situations - the rent would not cover the interest + property tax + maintenance, which would mean throwing away money if you buy.

    If indeed there are rent to buy ratios like the ones you have mentioned - then renting would be foolishness.



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  • jonty_11
    09-26 12:29 PM
    all the speculation aside, it would be good know waht IV core thinks abt this...or whats the Outlook of our Lobbying firm...for McCain or Obama





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  • gc28262
    09-26 01:07 PM
    I wish there was a rule not to pay any taxes till we the GC , that will change a lot doesnt it .


    Along with our efforts here, we should push Indian gov for the social security deal with US.

    Once the deal is done, potential EB immigrant leaving the country with all his/her social security deposit will make everyone in this country rethink about being harsh on EB immigrants.



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  • fide_champ
    04-06 06:26 AM
    Fide_champ,

    I am also looking for buying house in new jersey and as you mentioned all good places with good schools have hardly any effect from recession and housing down turn. But any way if you have to buy a house for long term then no point in waiting. The only thing bad times do to good places is value doesn't increase like it does in good times. Any suggestions on areas in New Jersey with good school and affordable (I mean something in 350-450k)? I know some very good areas where worst looking house starts at 700k which is out of scope.

    USDream2Dust

    USDReam2Dust,

    Even in good school areas the values came down but not as much as 20, 30 or 50%. In my area, houses above 500K are not selling. But i could see multiple bidders for houses that are good and attractively priced(5 to 10%) reduction. We are probably at 2004/2005 prices right now. The most encouraging thing is people are still buying.

    I live in south jersey and i know little bit about the south jersey market. I do not know much about other areas. In south jersey moorestown, mount laurel, marlton, voorhees, cherry hill are good areas to buy. Send a PM and we can discuss further about your specific requirements.





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  • Refugee_New
    01-06 02:27 PM
    Refugee_New,

    It all depends on people's mind. You don't need to answer me, and I am sure you are pure by heart as my many muslim friends.

    It depends where your bias is. Are you (you means in general people, not you particularly) biased to religion or you are biased to humanity! When a christian or hindu gets killed, if it doesn't pain you as much when a muslim gets killed, you are more biased towards religion.

    People are biased towards religion often shelter under humanity sentences to prove their point. But quite ofter they become onesided. Like People were igniting fire crackers in Pakistan when Mumbai massacre happened. When one of them gets killed, they shout on name of humanity.

    My sympathies are with poor innocent kids of palestine got killed.

    But people should come out and unshelter terrorists who live in civilian facilities. Same as Dawood & Azhar Masood. People want to harbour them but them if other country takes military action to capture them and some civilians killed because they were in civilian area, it is bad to shout on name of humanity. BECAUSE IN THAT CASE THEY ARE REALLY NOT INNOCENT.

    It pained me a lot when terrorist struck Mumbai and i did condemn the mindless killing just like fellow Indian and Indian Muslim. Don't you think Muslims in India united and showed their unity and condemned Pakistan?

    Don't compare terrorists like Dawood and Masood Azhar with those who are elected democratically by people of their nation.



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  • nojoke
    05-03 09:38 PM
    You think buying and selling a home a joke. You look on an average for 3-5 month to buy a home and one fine day u woke up and interest rate is high u plan to sell. This may be even possible only when u have bought house for pure investment.

    Once you move to ur first house with ur family. you will not sell ur house until u r forced to because of job/other extreme factors.

    Location is most important that any thing. It is very very localized. do u think manhattan house price went down..in fact it went up. Similarly DC metro area is relatively stronger compare to mid west.

    A bit of luck is always there in every single thing. Predicting bottom/peak is always challenge.

    One funny thing..people are planning how to sell before they even look for house to buy. lol..


    What are you talking about? I said to buy house when it is cheaper. If interest rates go up, then the house price will sure come down. If I buy low, I will be able to sell without a loss. I said it is better to buy a house cheaper at higher interest rate than paying 1/2 million at a lower interest rate. Got it?

    So Manhattan prices are rising and it is ok to buy else where? You are kidding.
    Yes real estate is localized. But this time it not if you area is falling down in price, but it is by how much. Some areas fall more than others. The prices will continue to fall in 99% of the place. Please stop quoting Manhattan. How many here live in Manhattan?

    Oh, predicting in this economy is easy. The housing will crash. No question about that. Only question is by how much. The lying liars(NAR) has just said that there is going to be a correction of 24% this year for california. If they are saying this, then you know it will go down by more than 40%.

    Did you watch today's program in CNN(housing meltdown). They said that this is a ponzi scheme. It is unsustainable. It is bound to fall.

    You seem to be living in your own dream world. Stop denying the fact. Go look around and read news. Just hoping for prices not falling is not going to stop the crash.

    I am not trying to talk about selling before buying. I am telling you to buy at a lower price so that you don't loose when you are forced to sell. Even otherwise it is always a good idea to buy low. Don't you look for bargain for your clothing. You don't sell them, but you still try to get at a good price. If you are doing this for buying clothes, why are you guys so eager to throw your money away when it comes to housing.:confused:

    Before throwing the sarcasm at others, learn about the economy and where we are in housing and where it is heading. You are just playing 'I don't hear any bad news, I don't see bad news...la la la la and everything is wonderful'. Look into all the links I posted and tell me why you are confident that house prices won't fall.





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  • jthomas
    06-05 08:58 PM
    Do not take that snipet out of context.. Innovation, research and development, that you have talked about was in the past. Do you know that Boeing has a R & D Lab in bangalore? So does many globals.. They are already doing modelling and simulation at those centers :). When they made it difficult for innovators to get here.. jobs left US to go to innovators.. .Same will happen with Technology soon :)

    By the way, all those your points are valid but will have a negligable impact on Housing market or economy in short term.. atleast until next cycle.. Unless US reform immigration policies for a 21st century knowledge revolution.. create well paid jobs for best and brightest in the world right here.. who can earn, spend and not borrow.. (EB category) ... Housing problem will also resolved... But US is lagging way behind. this is my opinion as Obama Administration has not thought so far beyond providing food coupons, housing rescue and medicare... Based on what is on the card, there will be lot of blue collar folks... nothing on innovation and technology and more Family based immigrants on welfare and low paid jobs... Do you still think, thing of past holds good now?

    Most of the jobs are going to china and elsewhere. I am a power supply design engineer and have interviewed with many firms. some of them say they have moved their research to Taiwan because there is no difference in innovation between US and Taiwan. They have sales and service facility in Irvine, southern california. Another company i talked to was *ell computers. They are subcontracting the design + production to china and other places. The cost of a computer power supply is around 6 dollars and its no way US can produce it at $6. They have a small portion of design over here and it will still stay in US but it hires very less PHd guys. I am sure china/india will have more PHd guys in future than in US. There are several more who buy from china and after testing the product use their name sticker.
    there will be more high school graduates, average educated person than high skilled engineers. There are a lot of companies who would like to hire engineers (US citizen)at a very good pay but they are not able to do so. My last employer was looking for a good engineer from last 4 years and my prior employer have waited for 8 years to find a good engineer.
    Good technical guys are at a very small percentage.

    housing price has to go down. I don't know what else is going to happen.

    J thomas



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  • ss1026
    12-22 11:43 PM
    That's very positive news. Its not like every muslim has ten wives and produces 50 children.And for that matter, every Hindu widow doesn't commit sati.

    I don't know whether VHP has a hand book. At least, I have not read it even if there is one. If they have it and they have expressed similar thoughts, there is nothing I can do about it.

    There are several issues in Indian society. We are not denying it.
    What we are demanding is that Pakistan should stop sponsoring terrorism. Not only that the nation must take active steps to root it out instead of simply disowning the terrorists. That's all.

    I feel the mood getting a little lighter here and about time. What happened in Mumbia was dastardly and the responsible gotta pay. Lets keep the pressure and focus on it.

    What I dislike though is the attempt by extremists to generalize a group of people to make them less humane and easy for the other group to kill them or worse ethnic cleansing. The point you mentioned is very often quoted to scare/anger the majority. The muslims have been guilty of been easily misled too so this is not unique to hindus.

    Amen to the end of terrorism but India is way ahead of its neighbors. I do not even wish to compare us to our neighbors though I hope they wake up and get their act together





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  • shensh
    04-09 01:33 PM
    Chill out pal, please don't exaggerate how much people value academic degrees in real business world. Holding a Ms or PhD degree alone doesn't necessarily mean you're an asset to this country, nor to a particular employer. I have Ms degree from US institution and I don't think it matters much to my employer, everything is based on performance.

    I agree that H1-B visa should be granted to people who fill a real business need, not those who are unfortunately treated as unlimited supply for body-shoppers making their fortune selling hours of H1-Bs. In this perspective, the idea of restricting companies with 50+% H1-Bs is brilliant. I wouldn't worry about management consulting firms like BCG or McKinsey, I bet they don't have half of their consultants under H1-b. :-)

    Quote:
    pete
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    EVERYBODY wants those doing Ms and PhD in certain disciplines to stay. They do no harm AT ALL and actually are an asset.

    Consultants need to be curtailed.



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  • mbartosik
    04-09 12:39 PM
    we've found that the more compelling arguments tend to be those related to US competitiveness. If I was to use the housing argument in a meeting, I would use it in a light hearted way while making a serious point. But it would certainly not be an issue that would be worth focusing on.

    You said it in post above -- e.g. competitive with European blue card.
    (The Blue Card is not like GC, however, comparing with UK and right to remain after a fixed 5 year period would be an argument more compelling than housing)

    Which are the most compelling arguments will also depend on the law maker's background. For some family issues are a factor, then housing can be brought into the mix with other issues like age out. However, law makers with which the family issues hold greater sway also are more likely to hold us hostage for CIR and relief for the undocumented.

    For most, common sense of justice is an issue, in which case housing can be brought up, but again, not an issue to focus on too much, more in the context of 'it is ironic that many of us want to buy houses but GC wait is what prohibits that, not the credit crunch'. Can be mentioned in passing, but not worth focusing on.





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  • xyzgc
    12-28 04:05 PM
    So Mr. Trained Reservist,
    Let's say the war is won in 15-20 days based on your expert knowledge, what is next? India occupies Pakistan? and acquires 160 million muslim population along with Talibans? You think that will end terrorism and riots in India?

    Oh BTW, there is another trained reservist in the history who claimed Iraq war would be won in two weeks. Do you know who he is? Hint: he became the worst president in the history of the US.

    The war was won in two weeks. Americans have traditionally poured billions of dollars in rebuilding nations that they have destroyed. What was unexpected was the insurgencies and the sectarian violence, which Iraqis themselves are guilty of. The war went horribly wrong because of the atrocious cost of the war and the drain on the failing economy. Saddam was an evil dictator and the fact that there is so much insurgency is a clear indication that Iraq was the hotbed of terror.
    That is why its taking longer than expected.

    If you want to debate on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, read the kind of savages the Japanese were. Read about comfort women. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comfort_women. It will make you really uncomfortable. Worse, till date the Japs are unapologetic saying there is no credible proof that this ever existed. Also, read about Bangladesh war http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War where 200k women were repeatedly raped giving birth to thousands of war babies, who were exported to orphanages in Europe and America.



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  • unseenguy
    06-23 04:17 PM
    ca_immigrant, you have brought up good points and the sophisticated rent vs buy calculators are available online for free which anyone can run math in 10 mins. Rents are holding steady in CA, so calculations might play a bit differently in CA.

    First of all, 5% is not available today for 30 yr fixed, its more like 5.25%. Another attractive option could be 5 year ARM or 7 year ARM if you can make additional payments for the principal, it will significantly bring down the principal amount owed at the end of first 5 years if you make CONSISTENT (per month) additional payments.

    I live in WA, I searched MLS & zillow for recently sold homes, most homes are going for 15-20% less than owner asked priced. Avg 3 bedroom house price here is 500K.

    1. I do not qualify for tax rebate offered this year due to income level restrictions (spouse works)
    2. Rents in Seattle have fallen steeply. Last year (aug), I was searching for apartment, I was offered at 1600 or 1700. The same apartment is now going for 1450. Some have fallen more steeply upto 1200 of the same class. I can get a very good/posh 2 bedroom apt for 1050 USD per month in today's date if I move out 5 miles more. It was unthinkable in seattle area 1 yr back.

    As you said, monthly payment on a 500 K house comes to around 2750 USD, thats true even in seattle. Thats 1750 USD more than the rent or atleast 1500 USD more than the rent.

    The gamble would be to stay in 1050 rent house for 2 more years and save bigger nest for downpayment. And prepare for the prices to fall more. say 25% more.

    Even if I offer current owners 20% less , the math does not make sense for me. Hence I am expecting 30% -35% correction from current expectations of the owners.

    Dont get me wrong, the owners would still be making a profit on homes constructed before 2003 even if there were 30% more correction.

    One thing we all know for sure is , home prices are not about to go up spectacularly. Maybe 30-40 K up in 2 years from now. When you are thinking of 10-20 year deals, thats not a lot, its peanuts :)

    As of now, I am thinking of buying a nice car instead of a house, since I can talk down car owners equally and since my GC is in geopardy, buying a car for now makes better sense. :)

    As someone said we should consider luxury of a house. I have rented one townhome for 1500 a month for which my neighbour is making 2800 USD payment, go figure :)





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  • puddonhead
    06-05 01:32 PM
    >> First off, a house is really both an investment and a home.

    If you look at the historical rate of appreciation vs. the risks involved - I think you will come to the same conclusion as I did - that it is a lousy investment in mature markets like US.

    The scenario is different in India. I believe (based on my assumptions and calculations) that the risk/reward ratio is much more favourable there.

    The intangible value of a "home" is the only reason I will ever "buy" a house here - because it is a lousy investment. For me - that tipping point is when I can afford a starter home for cash (it is a differnet topic that I will take a mortgage even then. If there is any problem with the title - the mortgage company is there to fight for me - so it acts as a second layer of insurance). It should not be as far off as you think if you are ready to settle for a small starter home AND actively invest (rather than spend) the principal payment you would have paid towards your mortgage every month.



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  • riva2005
    04-09 11:31 AM
    Don't want to sound selfish, but I agree 100% on this. Where I am employed as a scientist, the employer took great pains to show that I have not displaced any American worker. In fact they have a whole file with documents that support this fact. If I move, my new employer will do the same. I am not scared of this provision in the H1B bill. If you are really the best, only then you deserve to get the job, and then you have no reason to fear this bill.

    "I am not scared of this bill". Yeah. you are not scared. You are a scientist. The smart one. Unlike the dumbasses of EB3 here, you actually have something good to offer because you are a Ph.D. A scientist for Godsakes.

    You should really think about supporting IEEE-USA. Maybe you can be friends with Ron Hira. You know, Ron Hira is always looking for H1B friends. Like Stephen Colbert who has a black friends and keeps a black friend just to prove he is not a racist, Ron Hira needs H1B friends.

    Maybe you and other scientists like you and other "US MASTER DEGREE" holders can join hands with IEEE-USA. You guys have a lot in common. Let the stupid EB3 folks and bachelors' degree holders sort out their own mess.

    You are just like those folks who think:

    "As long as I am not affected, I dont care".
    "As long as people behind me in the queue are affected, I dont care".
    "As long as other people lose visas, opportunities, I dont care, because other people's loss has to be my game. Its a zero sum game". If EB3 scum is filtered out by Durbin-Grassley bill, I and my scientist friends can get some breathing room in this crowded queue filled with dumbasses who never bothered to do a Ph.D.

    Nice attitude.
    Really rimzhim, stick to research. I dont think you will ever be a leader and lead in anything.

    I would give kudos to core group and the EB3 dumbass like Aman Kapoor, who, despite having EAD himself is actually sticking up for people who are on H1B and facing the risk of purge by Ron Hira and Chuck Grassley.

    If Aman Kapoor and core group thought like you are thinking, maybe this organization would have never existed.

    So go and spend you precious time with your job, whatever it is that you do that makes you a scientist. This organization is catering to dumbasses on Eb3, and the stupid little bachelor degree holders who arent doing a real job.

    And go and become the "H1B friend" of Ron Hira. That way, Ron can say "Many of my friends are on H1B".





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  • kaisersose
    04-15 10:31 AM
    When I was a kid I lived in a very small house (flat) with my parents. Now I look back & realize that was the happiest time of my life. We didnt have much money. My parents gave me lot of time & love. For a kid what matters the most is the love he recives from his parents.

    Agreed, but then you have no way of knowing if you would have been less happier growing up in a bigger home. For all you know, you may have been more happier.

    I think personally we shouldn't make a statement "Our kids will have better lives in a house".

    That is the general line of thinking everyone has including all the people who are posting on this forum. If more money does not equate to a better life, then why are all these people taking the trouble to desert their home land and live in a foreign country? If more money => better lifestyle, then it follows a home can provide a relatively better environment to a child than an apartment.

    If all Americans live in rented apartments, drive only used Japanese cars (resale value), furnished their homes with scant used furniture and were focussed on investing their money than spending it, then the American economy will go down to the level of a third world country in less than 10 years.

    This does not mean everyone has to run out and buy a home. The point as I said earlier is to see a home as a home and not as an investment.





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  • Marphad
    12-17 02:17 PM
    This forum is for immigration related discussion. Discuss other matters in yahoo answers or any other similiar forum.:mad::mad:

    Rupees conversion rate:
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=298845&postcount=16
    By the time you complete required formalities and get an accout created, doller rate would have come down to 40:D:D..!!!!

    For me citi nri took looooooooong time to get the acocunt created.

    Someone started this very immigration related thread:
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=297679#post297679
    Considering the lowered cost of stock I am planning to gets my hands dirty in stock. But I don't have much knwoeldge about it. Also, by the time I find resouces to learn more about stock, the prices might ahve gone up.

    So can anyone provide good online tools to know more about investing on stocks and buying stocks online...

    Thanks

    Someone is talking about Hotels....
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=255794#post255794
    I stayed in woodlands...but had advance booking. Even with advance booking they had created a scene ..had to wait for 30 mins to get it confirmed. Palm grove is difficult get. Try palm grove or woodlands. Auto rikshaw will take around Rs.100 from woodlands. With the things running in your mind on that day, you won't think of saving money.

    Good luck..!!!

    furrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..................





    Macaca
    05-18 05:36 PM
    Moving back to America
    The dwindling allure of building factories offshore (http://www.economist.com/node/18682182)
    The Economist

    �WHEN clients are considering opening another manufacturing plant in China, I�ve started to urge them to consider alternative locations,� says Hal Sirkin of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). �Have they thought about Vietnam, say? Or maybe [they could] even try Made in USA?� When clients are American firms looking to build factories to serve American customers, Mr Sirkin is increasingly likely to suggest they stay at home, not for patriotic reasons but because the economics of globalisation are changing fast.

    Labour arbitrage�taking advantage of lower wages abroad, especially in poor countries�has never been the only force pushing multinationals to locate offshore, but it has certainly played a big part. Now, however, as emerging economies boom, wages there are rising. Pay for factory workers in China, for example, soared by 69% between 2005 and 2010. So the gains from labour arbitrage are starting to shrink, in some cases to the point of irrelevance, according to a new study by BCG.

    �Sometime around 2015, manufacturers will be indifferent between locating in America or China for production for consumption in America,� says Mr Sirkin. That calculation assumes that wage growth will continue at around 17% a year in China but remain relatively slow in America, and that productivity growth will continue on current trends in both countries. It also assumes a modest appreciation of the yuan against the dollar.

    The year 2015 is not far off. Factories take time to build, and can carry on cranking out widgets for years. So firms planning today for production tomorrow are increasingly looking close to home. BCG lists several examples of companies that have already brought plants and jobs back to America. Caterpillar, a maker of vehicles that dig, pull or plough, is shifting some of its excavator production from abroad to Texas. Sauder, an American furniture-maker, is moving production back home from low-wage countries. NCR has returned production of cash machines to Georgia (the American state, not the country that is occasionally invaded by Russia). Wham-O last year restored half of its Frisbee and Hula Hoop production to America from China and Mexico.

    BCG predicts a �manufacturing renaissance� in America. There are reasons to be sceptical. The surge of manufacturing output in the past year or so has largely been about recovering ground lost during the downturn. Moreover, some of the new factories in America have been wooed by subsidies that may soon dry up. But still, the new economics of labour arbitrage will make a difference.

    Rather than a stampede of plants coming home, �higher wages in China may cause some firms that were going to scale back in the US to keep their options open by continuing to operate a plant in America,� says Gary Pisano of Harvard Business School. The announcement on May 10th by General Motors (GM) that it will invest $2 billion to add up to 4,000 jobs at 17 American plants supports Mr Pisano�s point. GM is probably not creating many new jobs but keeping in America jobs that it might otherwise have exported.

    Even if wages in China explode, some multinationals will find it hard to bring many jobs back to America, argues Mr Pisano. In some areas, such as consumer electronics, America no longer has the necessary supplier base or infrastructure. Firms did not realise when they shifted operations to low-wage countries that some moves �would be almost irreversible�, says Mr Pisano.

    Many multinationals will continue to build most of their new factories in emerging markets, not to export stuff back home but because that is where demand is growing fastest. And companies from other rich countries will probably continue to enjoy the opportunity for labour arbitrage for longer than American ones, says Mr Sirkin. Their labour costs are higher than America�s and will remain so unless the euro falls sharply against the yuan.

    There�s no place like home

    The opportunity for labour arbitrage is disappearing fastest in basic manufacturing and in China. Other sectors and countries are less affected. As Pankaj Ghemawat, the author of �World 3.0�, points out, despite rapidly rising wages in India, its software and back-office offshoring industry is likely to retain its cost advantage for the foreseeable future, not least because of its rapid productivity growth.

    Nonetheless, a growing number of multinationals, especially from rich countries, are starting to see the benefits of keeping more of their operations close to home. For many products, labour is a small and diminishing fraction of total costs. And long, complex supply chains turn out to be riskier than many firms realised. When oil prices soar, transport grows dearer. When an epidemic such as SARS hits Asia or when an earthquake hits Japan, supply chains are disrupted. �There has been a definite shortening of supply chains, especially of those that had 30 or 40 processing steps,� says Mr Ghemawat.

    Firms are also trying to reduce their inventory costs. Importing from China to the United States may require a company to hold 100 days of inventory. That burden can be handily reduced if the goods are made nearer home (though that could be in Mexico rather than in America).

    Companies are thinking in more sophisticated ways about their supply chains. Bosses no longer assume that they should always make things in the country with the lowest wages. Increasingly, it makes sense to make things in a variety of places, including America.


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    Digging Deeper Into What Caused Job Losses (http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/digging-deeper-into-what-caused-job-losses/) By CASEY B. MULLIGAN | Economix
    What's Wrong With Tech CEOs? (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576329112614004894.html) By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR. | Wall Street Journal
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    The Great Recession's lost generation (http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/17/news/economy/recession_lost_generation/index.htm) By Chris Isidore | CNNMoney
    Top 10 Thriving Industries (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/05/16/top-10-thriving-industries/) By Phil Izzo | Wall Street Journal





    waitnwatch
    08-05 05:22 PM
    Here's the logic behind this debate as I see it (not that there is much logic in the way the immigration laws/rules are framed)

    A person with a Master's or a PhD has spent 2-3 or 5-6 years respectively to get their degrees but do not get a priority date reflecting that time spent on acquiring the qualifications.

    On the other hand a person with a bachelors who gets 5 years experience can port their priority date while moving from EB3 to EB2 thereby getting credit for time spent.

    Porting is law while the Bachelor+5 is due to some memo. This memo does not take into consideration the above inconsistency and therefore this debate.

    I hope this sounds logical to atleast some of you folks.



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